Investment Outlook or are fund managers just hopeful of retaining investors?

From a very prominent fund manager’s monthly performance update, the following is an extract from their market Outlook section:

“In terms of how the dynamics of countervailing forces between valuations and the fundamental backdrop plays out, we suspect that wages growth and inflation will be a key determinant, particularly in the US where the economic cycle is most advanced. We remain sanguine overall. “

Reading that sort of explanation makes my head hurt….and I’m trained! It takes about 5 minutes to interpret the actual meaning, so here’s my translation:

“There a lots of influences on markets, they are confusing, the cycle is nearing an end, but our best guess is that things are still good in equities. So…keep investing!”

It’s a common type of “fund-manager-splaining” (I invented a word) for everything is awesome, keep taking risks, because, well, that’s how they make money.

Consider risk very carefully and seek advice on your portfolio from someone who doesn’t profit from such a hopeful, and needlessly wordy, analysis.





The Answers to Mortgage Stress

Warning: The long term answer to mortgage stress is, very rarely, more debt.


When your minimum loan repayments take about 30% or more of your take home income, you are in what is commonly known as mortgage stress. You may not feel it now. You may actually feel pretty good with the current calming effect of a low home loan interest rate, or rising property values. Your income and spending may be stable, and life feels in balance. But chances are, one slight change in your financial situation, could lead to a whole lot of trouble.

Now, I’m not a doomsayer, or negative by nature. Quite the opposite. I’m an optimist with the advantage of a front row seat to the finances of ordinary people. I’ve seen what works, and what doesn’t work. The good news is, that it can be pretty simple. The bad news…..many people don’t want simplicity. Such is life!

My oldest, wisest and wealthiest clients, have been my best teachers. They have, long before they met me, lived well within their means, paid off their debts, saved and invested, and when it comes to borrowing, have been very cautious. This doesn’t mean that they haven’t used loans to buy their homes, or even to invest, and it definitely doesn’t mean they’ve lived on the cheap and sacrificed all that much. Families that manage their debts and their cashflow well, almost always end up wealthier (and with less stress) than those that don’t. They have the most things that they want in life, and almost never have a cash flow crisis. They are just happy to wait a little longer at certain times to avoid the trap of debt.

Sadly, all to often I see the negative wealth effects that mortgage stress can bring. Like a moth to the flame, some people can’t resist the offer of easy credit today, to buy something that just can’t wait. A new car to replace an old car that works fine. A four bedroom home for a family of two. A $50,000 wedding! A holiday on a credit card! Debt offers a quick an easy fix upfront, for a long term commitment of your “hard earned” for the years that follow.

For a family that isn’t prepared for change, life’s great and only certainty, problems frequently occur when:

  • Incomes fall – due to reduction or loss of employment
  • General living expenses rise – food, health or school costs go up (and up and up) higher taxes, changing family needs
  • Interest rates rise – adding to loan repayments
  • Personal debts (outside of the home) are not under control – eg; credit card has a significant balance (more than a fortnight’s income) that cannot be cleared each month

If one or more of the above issues present a significant risk to your situation, the plan should be to stop and think. Think about the scenarios above and apply a “stress test” to see how you might cope with the unexpected. Try to suspend your disbelief. Just humour me for a minute. The common misconception in life is that “it won’t happen to us” but ask yourself:

“can I handle a loss of an income through reduced working hours?”


“would I need to borrow more money from my bank/credit card/parents/loan shark if things got tight”

Whether your test is a complex calculation involving spreadsheets and economic analysis, or just a simple question asked quietly and honestly to your partner over dinner, the answers may be illuminating.  My view: Unless you are luckier than the average person, you cannot safely borrow your way out of debt.  Care should be taken to reign in the spending. Start the dreaded BUDGET, in order to reduce your current loans where:

• The minimum required repayments are less than 30% of your net income
• A rate rise of up to 3% from current levels will not put you back into mortgage stress

The reasoning behind this is simple

  • Mortgage rates are closer to the bottom of the cycle than they are to the top
  • It may be several years (3-7 years) before the rates are substantially higher but a 30 year mortgage commitment demands longer term thinking than getting by week to week
  • Employment income in a post-boom environment is less likely to rise during a period of rising interest rates
  • The equity you have in your home is essentially useless unless you sell it and use it for other purposes

A loan is a claim on your future income. A bank will own a big chunk of your productive output for many years. How many years do you want to be working for the bank?

8 Tips for selecting a financial adviser

I have been looking into the work of the ADF Financial Services Consumer Council. This organisation, commendably, provides comprehensive, expert and free financial education for it’s very large workforce. The employer, sees it has a duty of care to it’s staff to provide these services to it’s employees. Bravo!

I think the video link below is a brilliant beginners guide to selecting an adviser, for any Australian consumer. Here are 8 steps in assessing the adviser in front of you:

  1. Check whether the adviser is properly licensed or authorised
  2. Ask questions about the ownership of the adviser’s business and assess whether that will have an impact on the advisers recommendations
  3. Ask how the adviser gets paid and how that may affect their recommendations
  4. Ask about your adviser’s education and experience
  5. Make sure that any advice you receive is put in writing before you act
  6. Understand what ongoing services you will receive, and how much they will cost
  7. See a number of advisers, shop around until you find the person you feel most comfortable with
  8. Remember you’re looking for an adviser not a product salesperson

Make a cuppa, and enjoy the video.


Super is your money…..really….it is! Take it back!

In my 16 years in the superannuation and financial advice business, I’ve spent a lot of time and energy, trying to convince people to treat their superannuation as if it were their own money. Sound crazy? It is when you think about it, but understandable given we live in an age of information overload.

My clients are pretty intelligent, hard working people, who can manage family responsibilities, mortgages, personal share portfolios, property investments,  and even run successful businesses. How was it that they couldn’t be bothered to invest their super as if it were their own money? Probably because the super industry actually profits from this ignorance. Well, most of it anyway.  It seemed that large swathes of an industry, has evolved to foster a general investor disinterest / or false confidence in their fund managers or advisers. The marketing machine is enormous whilst the delivery of quality advice seems very thin on the ground. That may sound harsh, but there is plenty of evidence to support this theory. Scandal after scandal, large scale abuses of investor trust, and investments and strategies that have almost no chance of helping a client meet their goals.  Surely it’s time for more investors to take control?

I often track down super for clients after years of neglect. Decades in some cases! People have multiple funds from various jobs, no idea of how or where the money is invested, let alone who was profiting from it, or why some of the accounts have disappeared completely. And if they did make a decision, it was once, ten years ago based on limited advice, a seminar, or an advertisement they saw on TV, and left it drift along.

Consistent comments that I would get were:

“Super has too many rules, you can’t trust it, the government will just change them later”

“Super is run by the government/bank/fund manager, I assume they’ll do the right thing”

“It’s not that much, my super is my business/property/share portfolio which is far better than super will ever be”

My one question to people when I see (respectfully of course) is:

“Are you out of your mind?!”

Super is yours. Even if it is a few thousand dollars. Take it back. It was designed, like or not, to accumulate over your working life to fund your retirement. It also has the best tax treatment of any structure available.  There are many rules, some say too many, imposed on us by government about all sorts of things. From where we can park, what we can put in our bodies, how much tax we pay when we work or make profits, how many metres a chicken coop must be from an inhabited dwelling….I could go on, but you get the idea. Find out where your money is, ask some questions of an experienced, qualified adviser who works ONLY in your best interests, and take it back!



Welcome to BBK Notes

Welcome to BBK Financial Planning. I’ll post my best general ideas about finance, and some favourite links here. I have no set agenda or products to sell, other than my financial advice. There’s a world of information out there, I hope that I can filter out a bit of the rubbish.

Many thanks for visiting. All the best!

Ben Liddicoat